When belief is a bitch

This is the trouble with the truth

“It’s not what you don’t know that will get you into trouble. It’s what you do know for sure, that just ain’t so.” — Mark Twain

Today’s letter is short. I had a very different (longer) version of this post that my wife told me on the cusp of proudly publishing, needed to be taken out back and shot. Well, okay then! Shocked and a tad offended; I felt my defensive mode kicking in as soon as she started answering my “Oh, what, why?”.
Then quite luckily I caught myself in the most ironic moment imaginable…in a letter all about the importance of challenging your beliefs and interrogating your truths…here I was…words I’d written directly in front of me…attempting to defend what I believed to be a great post.

But I was wrong. Thanks to some curiosity and openness, what I was so sure of 10 minutes before, just wasn’t so. And now I knew it.

It was a good little kick that showed me how bad I am, and how bad I think we all are, at handling the trouble with the truth: that the truth is a little trickster that has no problem leading us to false/relative realities and locking us away in belief land.

And to combine the wisdom of Sam Harris and Robert Anton Wilson, belief is the end of thinking and the death of intelligence.

But sometimes, belief can go beyond just keeping us philosophically and mentally quarantined, it can be catastrophic.

human-made art by Cord Collages

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Good Times is a biased, but researched, guide to improving ourselves. Practical letters on self-discovery, psychology, work, life, philosophy, and other learnings about living a good life. Sign up here for some Good Times in your inbox.

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The problem isn’t ignorance

April 14th, 1912, was the night certainty snapped and plunged an icy 12,500 feet. I've watched James Camerons’ “The ship that can’t sink!” sink about 10 times, in part, because Captain Smith chugged her forward without appropriate concern…because he believed. As did many passengers—especially in first class—taking that belief at face value. For a while, a surprising number of people stayed inside playing cards or sipping brandy, certain any danger was exaggerated.

Or the freezing morning of January 28th 1986, when the Challenger Shuttle exploded 73 seconds after launch because the O-ring seals catastrophically eroded. Why did it happen? Because decision-makers believed that cold launches were safe enough, simply because previous flights had launched with some O‑ring erosion, but without catastrophe—creating a “normalization of deviance.” The untrue but accepted “fact” was that the O‑ring that had sometimes survived cold launches would always do so. Certainty, not ignorance, is what pushed the launch button.

Or what about when, on November 5th 2024, 77 million Americans went to the booths in red hats and believed…

These stories (and there are many more) paint a sad picture that danger isn’t always found in the unknown—it’s often in a version of reality that someone accepts as fact. And that the cost of being sure and wrong can be high.

Because if we don’t know something, and we know we don’t know, we ask and we easily learn. We respect opinions and value expertise. So, we grow. Our mental model of the world improves. We get smarter.

“Maturity begins when we’re able to say: there might be more to this than I currently understand.” — Philosopher Alain de Botton

But when we think we know, we’re much more likely to keep our hands down, ears shut, and fingers wagging. So, we go nowhere. We stop growing. We stop connecting with anyone else across differences, and we start isolating ourselves from complexity.

Which is why I plan on reminding myself of this little graph I asked ChatGPT to make for us….

If I have the balls to believe it, I better have the balls to question it too.

The trouble with the truth

I used to believe I was a kind and caring son to my mom.

I used to believe a good job was about how much it paid.

I used to believe happiness meant getting what you want.

All truths to me…at some point.

But the trouble with the truth is we often have incomplete versions of it, and versions that drive realities we protect with lots of biases. Because breaking a truth usually means breaking a belief—which is a part of our identity—and that is damn uncomfortable and sometimes more so, embarrassing to admit. Which is why that uncle of yours doubled down on his crazy beliefs, because finding out they’re wrong…well…makes them seem crazy. So they become more crazy.

We just hate uncomfortable things…I certainly do…so it’s much cozier and more pleasant to not shake the tree and see what comes falling out.

This is why we get stuck in our ways. And it’s why we see older dogs stiffening up when shown new tricks. Nobody likes their reality being fucked with.

We like leaning into the things that affirm our beliefs because it means we’re right and being right is nicer that being wrong.

This is the trouble with the truth. It makes us stiff in our beliefs. It fills us with hubris. It keeps our blindspots up. It makes us close minded and stubborn old farts, and often kills any possible compassion we have towards people who have different realities to us—or different truths to ours.

We hardly ever get anywhere without questioning things.

Every inch of progress we’ve made as a species has come from someone not believing some reality.

It’s true that horses where the best mode of transport until they weren’t. What else is a reality, about the world, our businesses, jobs, relationships, and selves, but also isn’t fully true?

Now I believe I was actually cold and dismissive to my mom when she needed me most; that a good job is about time; and that happiness means wanting what you have and wanting less.

These changes in beliefs have become agents of change in how I act and what I prioritize. Now I can use that guilt, and know I never want to leave someone feeling unseen; I care about a job that gives me freedom to enjoy my relationships and hobbies; and I try my best to be grateful for, and enjoy, what I have vs thinking about what I should aim for next.

If I never broke those beliefs, I’d be the same.
I don’t want to be the same.

So, what might you believe, that just ain’t so?
That answer may help you grow.

Breaking a belief

The smartest people are curious and skeptical and agile and critical—not of others—but of themselves and in their own thinking.

“Strong opinions, loosely held.” — Jeff Bezos

Strong opinions means forming a well-reasoned perspective based on the available evidence and experience.

Loosely held means the willingness to reconsider and change those opinions when confronted with new information or perspectives.

We’re all pretty good at the strong opinions piece, it’s the loosely held part we struggle with.

The thing is we don’t have to throw away everything we believe—just be open to unclenching our grip and allowing ourselves to shake the belief-bush a bit.

There’s a few easy tactics to doing that, but if there’s one thing to remember that acts as a cheat code, it’s this:

“The test of a first‑rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.”

The trick with that is to simply (although easier said than consistently done) ask yourself, in those moments when you feel strong conviction in your view while engaging with a counter view, “What would the most intelligent version of myself do or say?”.

Then, even if it feels unnatural, act as that person. Push yourself to question even if you hate having to do it. It may feel fake at first, but one day, you may find yourself genuinely more curious.

Okay, a few other things to help loosen a belief…

1. Replace conviction with curiosity

Next time you feel 100% certain about something, ask yourself:

• “What would it take for me to change my mind?”

• “What’s the strongest argument against my position?”

• “Could I argue the opposite view convincingly?”

You don’t have to agree with other views—but understanding them makes your own sharper, and more human.

2. Zoom out

When you feel reactive, try asking:

• “What would someone wiser than me see here?”

• “Am I defending an idea, or trying to prove something about who I am?”

3. Interrupt your assumptions

To challenge the quiet beliefs that run your life, ask:

• “What’s something I believe that might not be true anymore?”

• “Where did this belief come from?”

• “What would I do differently if I believed the opposite?”

Even if you’re feeling too lazy to do anything about it, just noticing your beliefs in real time is a big first step.

4. Listen like you're wrong

In conversation, lead your thinking with:

• “What am I missing?”

• “What’s the experience behind this belief?”

• “What would it look like for us both to be partly right?”

Curiosity is the best way to disarm people. Not just them—also you.

5. When you feel defensive, name it

I can always tell when I’m feeling defensive. I felt it the moment Julia said “We need to talk about your piece”. The instant urge to want to protect my view. I’m trying to get better at catching the moment, pausing, and asking:

• “What am I really protecting here?”

• “Is this about being right… or being heard?”

• “Could I step back and try to understand first?”

6. Catch yourself mid-bias

I’ve invested in a crypto project and oh boy am I a sucker for lapping up news that tells me I’ve made the right investment. But I know that when consuming content, I need to ask:

• “What’s missing here?”

• “Am I learning, or just agreeing?”

• “Would I believe this if the opposite side said it?”

• “What would the opposite side say?”

These little practices aren’t about becoming a soft, indecisive people-pleaser. They’re about becoming a wiser, more grounded, more flexible human who can still stand for what matters to you while not getting locked up in Belief-ville.

Because perhaps most dangerous thing we can believe is that we already know.

Now, ain’t that the truth?

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Good Times is a biased, but researched, guide to improving ourselves. Practical letters on self-discovery, psychology, work, life, philosophy, and other learnings about living a good life. If this was forwarded to you, sign up here for some Good Times in your inbox.